Evidence, anonymised.
Operators are not named and figures are reported at portfolio or per-measurement level. Every number below was read from a named source file. Where a statement is ThumbAd's judgement rather than a measured value, it says so.
The post-view share is not an excuse. It is a constant.
Six independent measurements. Five operators. Two continents. Six years. Every one customer-ID-level or platform-verified — none modelled.
Across six independent measurements the view-through share ran from 89.0% to 96.2%:
Operator A — pilot, registrations, 2020: 90.6% · Sub-Saharan Africa
Operator B — case-study week, bets, 2022: 92.5% · Sub-Saharan Africa
Operator C — registrations, 2026: 89.0% · Southern Africa
Operator C — path-to-conversion study, 2026: 94.0% · Southern Africa
Operator D — path-to-conversion study, 2026: 91.5% · Pan-Africa
Operator E — path-to-conversion study, 2026: 96.2% · North America
There are two clocks, and reporting windows only cover the short one
52% of conversions occurred within 24 hours of exposure. Eight in ten within three days — well outside a single session. 27.8 impressions per converting journey, against 0.12 clicks.
The execution clock is short — registration to deposit takes minutes once someone has decided to act. The influence clock is long. A session-scoped analytics tool sees the first and cannot see the second by construction. That is not a configuration problem; it is what the tool is.
Source: customer-ID-level path-to-conversion data, November 2022. The same pattern reappeared in a 2026 audit of a live African sportsbook account, where the majority of even the click-attributed depositors converted more than 24 hours after the click that earned them.
Three studies
The 2% Problem — six sportsbook operators, $541,548 of media, 122,418 registrations at a $4.42 blended CPA across 378.5 million impressions. Every account ended, and none of them ended on performance — they ended on a number nobody had reconciled. Read it.
The Seasonal Engine Lens — twenty-one months of measured first-deposit acquisition, built into an instrument you can move: what an acquisition engine is worth once it is running, and what every month of waiting costs. Open the Lens.
Path to Conversion — customer-ID-level journey reconstruction for a Southern African sportsbook: 94% of registrations arrived without a click being credited. Not a model — every journey rebuilt from the platform's own identity resolution and joined back to the operator's records. Request it.
Read this before quoting any figure. No incrementality claim is made or implied. View-through conversions are exposure-linked, platform-attributed events — not evidence that the media caused the conversion. The argument here is measurement completeness: what each system is structurally capable of seeing, and nothing beyond it.
None of these accounts churned on performance. They churned on a number nobody had reconciled.
If you want the same reconciliation run against your own account, start with the measurement integrity audit.
Every study, guide and instrument ThumbAd has published is listed on Insights.